Will this get any easier? Based on Bleacher Report NFL analysts are currently faring against the spread this year, it can’t get much harder.
Picking every match, Brad Gagnon Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had another challenging run in Week 12, dropping their record to 251-259-18. Individually and as a crew, here is the harm through 12 months (a week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
With December looming, we asked longtime sports gambling advisor Dave Tuley when there could be some light at the end of the tunnel for the betting public or when the sportsbooks will continue to benefit from larger samples late in the summer season.
Tuley gave us a hope, but not sufficient to get.
“There was a time less than a dozen years ago where I had a lot of years in a row where I simply killed it the next half of the year and in December,” he explained. “At the time, I felt as though it was only the time of year when the great teams were being overrated and the bad teams were being underrated, and with parity what it was, the underdogs were performing a lot better at the time.”
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered advantages that are consistently significant . “As much as bettors want to believe that we are getting smarter the more we see these teams play,” he said,”obviously the oddsmakers are seeing the very same things we are, and they are adjusting and which makes it hard as well.”
But he still believes it is possible to pick out lines that have been exaggerated by midseason slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point spread in favor of the New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are indicating the Saints would be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were in New Orleans, which does appear high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning series.
“That is [a reflection of] the way the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the novels to balance their actions, they have to put it at that amount.”
It’s something to remember as we enter the last month of this 2018 season. Any advice helps, if you’ve been following us all year, although it might not save your entire year as a bettor.
Here’s what Gagnon Davenport and Sobleski are considering heading to the initial slate in two or more months.
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