This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card Milwaukee which will be the last UFC on FOX card on account of this brand new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools for this particular event but there is still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful top prize are always my favorite competitions to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I will stick to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a fantastic amount of play in cash games. Here are a few plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best fight to enter money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I believe that you can pile the main event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score tremendously and according to Vegas he has a 77% probability of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a high floor, but he probably has the maximum ceiling onto the card as well. That is where I’ll be starting my money lineup this week.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is almost a PK fight on the betting odds today. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s possession will go down because of that and that is what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he does win then he should score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we are getting there, and that I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to become among the most well-known underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be by knockout so not only would he have the win, but he would score highly too. I think if he can win this battle he then ends up on the 1st area lineup and he is my favourite underdog of this week because of this.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I’m actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him since he’s $9.3k and with his fighting style I don’t see him getting over 10x that salary. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins so much in his profession and he has scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP because the other guys in that $9k range probably score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each struggle, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the last 7 months!)
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