This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a fairly safe win here with Roberts and that’s precisely what I am looking for. I need the wins that are safer in cash and I can be concerned about who is going to score the greatest in GPPs. I think we can eliminate him at the GPPs in his cost because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win 25k. It helps us triumph in cash games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he’s excellent for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with that in my money lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of the week and he has the greatest ITD odds on the card at -222. This is a set up struggle for him to get a knockout and I think that is quite likely going to happen in the very first round. That should place Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be one of my best plays of this week, but he’s GPP only for me. We can not trust him sufficient for money games, so that’s the reason why I enjoy Roberts more in that arrangement. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he is $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of high ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too great for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change once they’re released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he’s favored to get the win. I also believe he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission above 90 points. That would provide him a good chance at being to the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs since I do not expect it to move all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we need to own”underdogs” within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I believe that the obvious path to victory for Glover is to the ground and that’s precisely what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my highest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand folks were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade too… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and I will have zero lineups such as her. In general, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling being in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling at shield to attempt and keep this fight on the feet. Each of the threat is on the ground in this matchup and Carla gets the boxing of both. I believe she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to reduce it at $8.2k so I simply don’t see how she ends up on the 25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 69-44 for +224.83u (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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