This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe it’s a great week to focus more on cash games. The most important GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best one to pursue in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a great deal of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I won’t have many LUs in total this week. Aside from that, almost all of my play this week will probably be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best play on the card that weekend and there are 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe that is a fight the UFC is needing him to win in his home country. I think in tournaments, Yadong will be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I believe that you may make a situation to fade him due to his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we do not care about ownership. I think that this is a great spot to lock at a win and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP play of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Normally when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them among the very popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense this weekend at a struggle which shouldn’t go all 3-rounds. If either of these guys get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter will be the lower owned guy of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to target this week for UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will find a win. I think that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he does have a clear path to victory and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability in order to KO anybody on Earth. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st place lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first battle between these two guys Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up fairly quickly each time. If he is in a position to get up like that here, then I don’t find any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to attempt to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a card, I really don’t enjoy many underdogs I think he’s the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of the week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting any of these ladies in the 9k selection. I believe that they need to all get wins, but I don’t find any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I believe she’s to get a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and only 1 of those wins didn’t go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anybody a championship. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have better chances of winning compared to Mueller does this that’s why I picked her over those two as my fade of this week. I will not be making a great deal of lineups this week but when I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller will be on zero of these.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
Read more: canballreport.com