This weekend, we’ve got a card at Brazil. DraftKings has some decent competitions out there with this Fight Night card, which is uncommon for all these free ones. The principal tourney is the $8 entrance and pays $20k to 1st. That is the main GPP I’ll be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, this week DraftKings has two competitions for trips out to Vegas to see that the McGregor vs Khabib fight. Flight, hotel, and struggles all paid for. The floor chairs contest is a $33 entrance along with the non-floor seats competition is only a $15 entrance. I will have to take a few shots in that too. Also, DraftKings simply released a contest for UFC 299 that is a $10 entry with a massive $100,000 to 1st place. That is by far the biggest prize we’ve ever seen in DFS MMA, so let us build a bankroll this weekend so we are able to shoot a few extra shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is the safest win on the card and I think she gets this battle finished early. That is where I’m starting my money LUs this week. Only give me the -1100 favorite who’s being fed an easy win here, for my money games. I do like a lot of the top favorites on this card, I just are the most shocked when Souza lost. I believe she’s fine in both formats, but she will most likely be chalky in GPPs, therefore money games are the ideal place to get your Souza investment this week. Simply take this triumph, then find 3 others and you should be good in money games.
GPP play of this week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I am a big Charles”Can Bronx” Oliveira fan, and he’s some of my favorites in UFC history. I believe we can see another awesome one here. This fight seems simple to call. Do Bronx will look for the early takedown and when he can get it then he probably gets a 1st round sub. If that happens he must lock up a strong 100 points and I am pretty certain in that being the outcome of the struggle, so that is why he is my GPP play of the week. He’s also my GPP play of this week, and not my Cash play of this week for a reason. If he can not get the takedown(s) early, then he will likely quit and get finished himself with strikes. I don’t like that risk of a low floor because of my money LU, therefore I prefer Souza there. However, in GPPs I enjoy saving the $200 and going down to Do Bronx.
Underdog drama of the week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I would like Anders a lot more if he wasn’t taking this fight on short notice, and when it was not in Brazil. However he can have a very clear path to success here and that is by knocking out Santos who doesn’t possess a fantastic chin. Anders could also opt for takedowns in this struggle and he can win with some hard GNP too. At $7.6k he will almost surely wind up on the winning LU when he is able to get the KO. This is the major event, so he’ll have 5 rounds to function with. I really do think this is a solid matchup for Anders, however he must be competitive and never hang out to the exterior. If he hangs out to the exterior too long Santos will eat up him with kicks and it could be a short night for Anders. I am going to select him to get the win as an underdog in Brazil and I think he gets it completed in the first two rounds with a KO. That will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it’ll win you a GPP if you’re able to get your other five spots correct also.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is obviously a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of the week here, I was quite wrong and that he scored over 100 points. Then so be it, if this happens here. But I refuse to rely on an early KO win to cover off a $9.2k salary by a man who does not throw many strikes. At $9.2k I want at least 92 points out of Alvey when I roster him and the only way get gets that is using a 1st round KO win. That could occur here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not eager to spend my money in it.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my selection outlook for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can go to this link below:
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